Review of Environmental Projects of the Caspian Sea for the Planning of Future Activities
Pilot country: Turkey
Duration: March 1998-Sept. 1999
Participants: Azerbaijan, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg,
Russia, Turkmenistan
Publication: CCMS Report No. 239
The Caspian Sea is important not only from an environmental and economic standpoint but also from a geo-strategic perspective. The environmental sustainability and economic utility of the Caspian Sea has a critical role to play in the stability of the entire region. The project reviewed the objectives and the accomplishments of all Caspian Sea programmes, whether completed or ongoing, and compiled the information on existing gaps of knowledge in the region. Utilizing this information, the project produced a Caspian Sea Science and Implementation Plan. The plan basically includes recommendations for future work aimed at resolving the missing elements in environmental research in the region. The plan identifies the specific anthropogenic and natural causes of environmental problems in the region, and the gaps of knowledge to quantify key variables and processes to be studied. Integrated assessments and scientific investigations of the environmental changes in the Caspian Sea region are identified as the starting point for tools leading to successful predictions and for fruitful scientific collaboration and management.
The participants of the NATO/CCMS Pilot Project 'Review of Environmental Projects of the Caspian Sea for the Planning of Future Activities' have reviewed the existing activities in the Caspian Sea region and have arrived at the following conclusions and recommendations.
The environmental crisis in the Caspian Sea is the result of the joint effects of natural climatic change and anthropogenic forcing, which threaten its ecosystem, as well as the well-being of people in the surrounding lands. It is one of the oldest and relatively undisturbed ecosystems of the world, and a living natural museum. On the other hand, its rich commercial deposits of oil make it the scene of economic activities of an international scale, threatening the delicate balances of the natural system. This presents an urgent task to those concerned with the fate of the region to make efforts for preservation. Other pollution sources such as radioactive and industrial wastes are on the rise and present increasing risks of deterioration.
The risk of a rapid, precipitous collapse of the ecosystem by eutrophication resulting from increased loads of nutrients is a familiar threat in an enclosed sea, which has been experienced in the neighboring Black Sea. With large rivers such as the Volga carrying pollution loads to the sea and surrounding marshlands, signals of such deterioration have already become recognisable. The increased human activities, e.g. of fishing pressure, can make the situation worse, which also seems to be the case in the neighboring bodies of water.
The emigration of alien species to and from the Caspian Sea is a serious problem for the Caspian Sea as well as other parts of the world affected by the exports. As the original biodiversity of the system has not been sufficiently established, the introduction alien species could lead to unpredictable consequences. Similarly, the exports of indigenous species from Caspian Sea has already started to affect other areas of the world, and especially small lakes where they create large economical losses. Sea-level changes in recent times has had important consequences for the economic well-being of the region. In addition, the effects of sea-level changes on deep water renewal and age may imply a return to conditions when the sea level is higher, such as before the 1930's when the deep waters had started to become anoxic. With the recent rise in sea-level, aided by increased metabolism of the sea by pollution loads, there appears a possibility to have changes in the biogeochemical composition of the Caspian Sea waters, which may lead to an evolution paralleling Black Sea, i.e. of hydrogen sulfide formation and stagnation.
In an environment of strong climatic contrasts and variability within a wide range of space and time scales, extremes are more likely to happen, especially if the influences of the global system are readily exerted in the region. The inherent sensitivity to external forcing implies relatively large changes in the environment in response to small changes in driving forces of natural and anthropogenic origin. The Caspian Sea is located in a region sensitive to climate changes, where anthropogenic change of similar magnitude compounds the environmental problems, making their solution difficult. Therefore, the science plan for the Caspian Sea region must adopt methods in recognition of the structure and functioning of the ecosystem and its linkages to the surrounding environment. Furthermore, it must provide a first approach to development of methodological approaches for assessment of impcats based on observations and modelling.
Using observations, analyses, and modeling, future projects in the region should aim to decrease uncertainties in predicting the behaviour of the system under natural and anthropogenic forcing, and thus contribute to the levels of understanding and utilities required by end-users and decision makers for effective community management of environmental resources, and to enable sustainable development of the region. It is therefore necessary to construct a Caspian Sea Observation and Forecasting System with the following objectives.
The first step to achieve this goal is to have multidisciplinary investigations establishing an understanding of the history and present state of the system. These studies must answer specific questions with regard to (i) the physical mechanisms playing roles in the system, (ii) the key variables and processes influencing system behaviour, (iii) the linkages between the system elements and the neighboring and remote climatic systems, (iv) the coupling between the physical and biogeochemical sub-systems, (v) the fluxes and budgets of energy and matter within the system, (vi) the sources and transports of pollutants and other factors affecting environmental quality, (vii) ecosystem security and preservation, (viii) involuntary import or exports of alien species, (ix) paleoecology and biodiversity of marine life.
The natural next step to have an understanding of the integrated and interactive behaviour of the environment is to have investigations of the climate system on a regional scale and to establish links with global systems in view of the need (i) to develop ocean and atmospheric circulation models of the Caspian Sea region, including realistic air-sea/riverine momentum and buoyancy fluxes, sea level changes, flooding and ice thermodynamics, atmosphere-land-sea interactions, transport of materials, (ii) use coupled models consisting of the physical, chemical and biological components, (iii) develop methods to use or assimilate observed data in these models, (iv) to make studies of a wide range of climate processes such as upwelling, ventilation, desertification, desiccation, material or heat transport, (v) to make assessments on stability and predictability of system components, (vi) to reduce uncertainties in the mass balances through integrated studies of freshwater budgets, exchanges and sea level changes.
The above objectives can only be achieved in the Caspian Sea region through the (i) establishment of cooperation and infra-structures to enable or continue data collection, archiving and exchange, (ii) harmonization of activities with existing programs to make use of the research means already facilitated by regional institutions, (iii) use of sea-level monitoring and analysis as an integral measure of the success of predictive tools used in the region, (iv) making extensive use of earth system observation technology with satellites and other multi-purpose platforms, (v) analyses of the contemporary and past observations, (vi) development of supporting Data and Information Systems to make results available to the community.