Black Sea Observation and Forecasting System (BSOFS) Science Plan
Pilot countries:
USA+Turkey
Duration: 1997
Participants: Turkey, USA, Ukraine,
Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia,
Publication: CCMS Report No. 221
This plan defines the scientific and technological research issues to be considered and the strategies to be adopted for developing a Black Sea Observation and Forecasting System (BSOFS) for the entire basin and its coastal and shelf seas over a 10-th year period.
Specifically, the goal of the BSOFS is to explore, quantify, and predict the ecosystem variability of the Black Sea - from the scale of the overall basin to the coastal/shelf areas, and over time scales extending from days to weeks to months - through the development and implementation of a forecasting and observation system. BSOFS, as presented here, involves coupled physical -biological -chemical -ecosystem dynamical models with interdisciplinary data -assimilation schemes, linked to a flexible multiplatform, multisensor observational network; a module for designing optimum sensor -sampling configurations and specifications through theory and observations; general analysis schemes for identifying and interpreting coupled interdisciplinary dynamical processes; and nested models integrated with sampling schemes, especially for the coastal and shelf seas.
The achievement of the BSOFS' specific objectives will establish the feasibility of the operational system and subsequently will lead to the future development of the interfaces to the users communities for disseminating forecasts. This is the preoperational goal of BSOFS.
The plan is to develop the BSOFS over 10-year period, in three phases. The first two phases span 6 years and will be devoted to the further development of interdisciplinary coupled models capable of assimilating physical, biological, and chemical variables; the construction of the observational network consisting of multiple platforms and sensors capable of sampling fields of a series of key variables; and the guarantee that the system contains multiscale, nested components. The system development will rely heavily on Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), which will allow a staged and iterative buildup partly by learning from the system behavior, making optimum use of resources, and understanding the interactions of the system components. The third phase will be devoted to the achievement of the preoperational goal of BSOFS.
It is envisioned that this science plan will considerably contribute to the implementation of Black Sea Strategic Action Plan (BS-SAP) in the following ways:
- Addressing issues not covered by BS-SAP.
- Clarifying the basic causes of environmental degradation of the Black Sea ecosystem identified in the Black Sea Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA).
- Providing a scientific basis for the action proposed in the BS-SAP.
- Helping to solve the identified problems by understanding the processes involved using models as a tool
- Monitoring the changes in the ecosystem that will occur after the implementation of proposed actions.
- Transferring science and technology to the decision makers to take actions.
- Establishing monitoring and forecasting systems in the Black Sea on a permanent basis.
- Predicting the Black Sea response to various forms of external effects using long-term monitoring through observation systems.
- Strengthening the Black Sea scientific community.
- Promoting and strengthening international collaboration in the region.